Are you using Monte Carlo analysis to project deliverables? At its core, forecasting represents a sophisticated optimization challenge, one that seeks to minimize schedule subject to budgetary constraints. This equation is subject to myriad of variables including understanding and prioritization of work, order of execution, allocation of skilled personnel, and the ever present spectre of risks. Agile, while attempting to be nimble, often side-steps the intricate dance of optimization in favour of adaptability and speed. Practiced well, organizations have benefited strategically from this speed and adaptability as is evidenced by modern technology organizations. Enterprise ITs, however, in an attempt to reinvent themselves are failing miserably at becoming good at either.